【聚焦】幕安会上，傅莹谈朝核问题实质（附傅莹女士幕安会发言英文全文）-盘古智库
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2月17日，第54届慕尼黑安全会议的大会论坛围绕核安全问题进行讨论，题目是“失控的核安全”。在谈及朝核问题时，傅莹女士认为，朝核问题无疑最为紧迫，其实质是实现共同安全，还是一方追求自己的绝对安全，以损害他国的安全为代价。朝鲜战争结束60多年了，迄今只有停战协议，而没有达成过和平协议。美军及其盟友与朝鲜的军事敌对一直是半岛紧张的根源。
本文中文内容来源于“观察者网”，多田薰 傅莹女士幕安会发言英文全文经作者授权盘古智库发布。”
傅莹 第十二届全国人大常委会委员、全国人大外事委员会主任委员
2月17日，第54届慕尼黑安全会议的大会论坛围绕核安全问题进行讨论，题目是“失控的核安全”，由美国前副国务卿、哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授伯恩斯主持，参加讨论的嘉宾有爱沙尼亚总统克尔斯季·卡尤莱德、韩国共同民主党党首秋美爱、中国全国人大外事委主任委员傅莹、美国副国务卿沙立文和俄罗斯联邦委员会国际事务委员会第一副主席谢尔盖·基斯利亚克。
傅莹在论坛上以“从人类命运共同体的角度看核领域全球治理”为题发言，她说：核武器仍是当今世界杀伤力最大的武器，各国应采取负责任的态度携手推进核领域全球治理何处可采薇 。五核国应维护全球战略稳定，继续推进核裁军，维护核不扩散体系。傅莹说，中国核武库规模非常小，坚持自卫防御的核战略，维持最低限度的核威慑。中国始终奉行在任何时候、任何情况下都不首先使用核武器的政策，无条件地承诺不对无核武器国家和无核武器区使用或威胁使用核武器。中国也一直主张全面禁止和彻底销毁核武器。
傅莹进而提出，应提升全球安全治理，以更好地反映当今世界经济全球化和高度一体化的趋势。中国主张构建人类命运共同体，提出持久和平和普遍安全的概念。各国应在适当的时候开始考虑制定共同的安全原则，避免滑向以阵营划界的方向。
在核问题上，俄联邦委员会国际事务委员会第一副主席基斯利亚克谈到，美国近期出台的《核态势评估报告》降低核武器使用门槛，提出发展低当量核武器马瑞拉，实质是把核武器从传统的遏制手段变为战争工具。此外，美在欧洲部署新型导弹，明显违反《中导条约》。俄美已经实施并履行《新削减战略武器条约》，2018年2月5日标志着条约对双方战略核武库的核心限制正式生效。俄愿与美合作落实条约。听众中也有不少人对美国试图降低核武器使用门槛提出质疑，认为这是在核安全问题上的严重倒退。
美国副国务卿沙立文说长嫂难为 ，美出台核评估报告主要基于两个原因：一是应对安全形势最新发展。美政府十年前提出各方削减核武器，但俄等国并不积极。美发展低当量核弹，是对俄发展中短程低当量核弹的回应。二是应对核扩散机甲步兵。朝鲜不仅自己发展核武，还向其他国家搞平行核扩散，这使敌对势力拥核的可能性大大上升。《评估报告》指出，在敌对势力利用战略核武器对美打击，造成灾难性影响之前，美可使用核武器应对，这仅是极端情况。总体来说，美核政策公开、透明，让大家都了解在何种情况下美将使用核武。
爱沙尼亚总统克尔斯季提醒各方对技术发展背景下的核安全予以重视，尤其谈到将人工智能运用到核武和战争领域的风险。克说，各国应在联合国框架下，积极研究和应对先进技术在核威慑中的运用，改变传统思维模式，应对2.0版本的核威胁。
在朝核问题上，傅莹说，朝核问题无疑最为紧迫，其实质是实现共同安全，还是一方追求自己的绝对安全，以损害他国的安全为代价。朝鲜战争结束60多年了，迄今只有停战协议，而没有达成过和平协议。美军及其盟友与朝鲜的军事敌对一直是半岛紧张的根源。朝方视美方的巨大军事压力为对自己存亡的威胁，为实现终极自保走上拥核的道路。由于相关方之间严重缺乏信任，半岛陷入了相互刺激、螺旋下降的恶性循环。她说，中国坚持半岛无核化，严格履行了联合国安理会的制裁决议，同时也主张通过和平谈判解决朝鲜的安全关切。
傅莹说，眼下，韩朝利用平昌冬奥会实现接触，再次点燃和平的希望，两国运动员携手进入开幕式会场的场面感人，令人信服地展示了南北人民渴望和平的强烈愿望，我们都应支持他们。美国不要错过开启和平谈判的机会，否则词圣是谁，形势可能再度进入紧张轨道疣必治 。
韩国共同民主党党首秋美爱说，平昌冬奥会为韩朝今后可能的对话打开窗户。金与正率高级代表团访韩，与韩进行文化交流。朝领导人已邀韩国总统访问平壤。双方正在考虑推动经济合作及其他形式的交流。当然，前提是朝停止挑衅行为，致力于实现无核化目标。
秋美爱说，韩国总统文在寅提出半岛和平倡议，包含“三无”理念，即半岛无核化，无战争，韩与盟友关系无罅隙。韩将推动与朝谈判，同时与美一起对朝采取合适的遏制战略。联合国安理会针对朝鲜的制裁应继续执行，但制裁不是目的，只是促朝走上谈判桌的手段。朝核问题解决是个长期任务，需要有耐心。和平与稳定的局面有利于降低半岛紧张局势。希国际社会支持韩政府对朝政策，实现半岛无核化。
基里利亚克说，中俄都提出“双暂停”倡议。平昌冬奥会期间，朝方与美韩均自我克制济公主题曲，已形成事实上的“双暂停”。各方应抓住机会，推动对话白马会所 。
沙利文表示，美国务卿和防长均提出可与朝鲜开启对话有你的小镇 ，但对话不是谈判，更不是对朝让步。美国的政策是坚持用外交手段解决朝核问题，并通过最大限度对朝制裁和施压让朝回到对话轨道。同时对朝的挑衅保持采用其他手段的可能性。
在参会嘉宾回应主持人和听众提问的环节，傅莹就中美如何在朝核问题上开展合作回应说，中美有着许多一致点，例如，坚持半岛无核化，主张和平谈判解决问题，认为制裁是必要的手段等，中方全面履行了联合国安理会的制裁决议。但中方也一再强调，制裁的目的是实现和谈，谈起来才能有效果。如今联合国安理会已经通过10项对朝制裁决议，但决议中屡次提及的和平谈判却一直空悬。希望美方此次能抓住和充分利用平昌奥运会提供的契机。
有听众质疑朝鲜在平昌冬奥会向韩国示好的动机，金正恩是否有意在离间韩美关系，秋美爱回答说，对朝方的动机确实不好做出判断，也很难说是否有意在韩美间插入楔子。但目前韩国政府是唯一同朝鲜有直接沟通渠道的政府。有必要利用平昌奥运会的积极势头，推动朝鲜尽快回到谈判桌来。希望国际社会对此予以积极支持。卡尤莱德总统说，外界大可不必担心韩朝走近是否会影响韩美关系，毕竟韩国和美国有着共同的价值观和理念，这点不会轻易发生动摇。
还有听众提问，美政府官员表态愿意与朝对话，是否表明美方持续一年的在经济和外交上孤立朝鲜的政策开始发生变化？沙利文回答，在朝核问题上，美国政府与文在寅政府保持密切沟通，和韩、日一起持续孤立朝鲜，直至朝鲜放弃核武。但凡支持核不扩散的各方，都应支持对朝孤立的政策。秋美爱说，在朝核问题上，美方关注的问题很多，但对韩方而言，最大的关切是核问题。预计至2020年朝方将拥有100枚核弹头。因此，需要尽快冻结朝鲜的核计划，国际核军控问题的首要任务应当是解决朝鲜核问题。傅莹说，孤立朝鲜不应是目标而是手段，目的是将朝鲜拉回到谈判桌前。中国一直坚持通过和平谈判解决朝鲜的安全关切万国置地 。
在辩论中，针对美国核态势评估涉及国际安全环境变化的观点和所谓来自中国的威胁的说法凯vs鬼鲛 ，傅莹说，美国不应拿中国作为自己调整核态势的借口，所谓的中国对美国威胁毫无根据。在当前国际形势复杂多变的情况下，中美俄等大国不应视对方为战略竞争对手或威胁，应进一步加强对话，增强而不是破坏战略平衡。
听众还比较集中地质疑美国破坏或者退出伊核协议的考虑，沙利文强调伊核协议有益但是也有缺陷，美方希望在协议认证的下一个时间点即5月12日前，可以在解决漏洞方面取得进展，这将有利于美方的认证。沙的说明遭到听众的批评，美国前能源部长、伊核谈判代表莫尼兹指出，伊核协议不是万能的，但其条款规定严密，根据该协议，伊核活动将在15年内受到严格限制，15年后仍将受到独特、永久的核查。希不要因拖延协议的执行而导致伊核新的发展结果。
傅莹女士幕安会发言英文全文
China in Globalization
Fu Ying
As we enter 2018 and move towards the end of the second decade of the 21st century, the world is witnessing new instabilities and turbulent situations. Having attended forums in Munich, Sochi and Rome in late 2017, I could sense the anxieties among the international strategic circles. People were asking: What is happening in the world today邱戎红 ? Is the current global system collapsing? Will mankind fall back onto confrontations and isolationism?
The 40th-year anniversary of China’s reform and opening up policies will be marked in 2018. Forty years ago, China took the historic decision to shift the focus of the Party and the country to make the economy grow. “Peace and development are the themes of the times”大奥华之乱 , as Deng Xiaoping later summed up. These are still the dominant themes today. China has been riding on the tide of economic globalization since and has become a hub and an important engine for the world economy. From China’s perspective, globalization needs to be improved, but to backtrack is unlikely. China is therefore calling for globalization to be made more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all.
Nowadays, world security challenges are globalized. Common threats are widespread, including extremism, terrorism and cyber security challenges. But major countries find it hard to rid themselves of the geopolitical tug of war and are returning to competitive and exclusive security approaches, making it harder to create effective global security cooperation. The US-led Western world has attempted to achieve a westernization of the world by exporting its own values and model. However, those attempts have not only failed to address old problems but have created new ones.
China is not pursuing its development goals in a vacuum. We need a peaceful international environment. We need to engage in more extensive and comprehensive cooperation with the rest of the world. As President Xi Jinping said in his speech delivered at the Geneva Palais des Nations on 18 January宋铁龙 , 2017: “China will do well only when the world does well, and vice versa.”
The 19th CPC National Congress established China’s new central leadership with President Xi at its core, and “The Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was adopted as the guide to China’s development. It mapped out the objective of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and turning China into a great modern socialist country in two steps by 2050. It also charted the course for China’s economic policy over the next couple of years. China’s economy has been going through a transition from a phase of rapid growth to one of quality development. Put more simply, our concern before was about whether there is enough and now it is about whether it is good enough. Therefore, our focus of attention also needs to be changed and the emphasis will be given to more coordinated and comprehensive development, paying attention not only to economy but also to political, cultural and social progress as well as to improving eco-environment.
The Party Congress reiterated that peace and development remain the call of our day, while admitting that the world faces growing uncertainties and destabilizing factors. In this context, China's diplomatic goals in the new era include promoting the creation of a new type of international relations, giving more prominence to lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity, and calling for the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. These are not only our expectations of the world’s future, but also a necessity for our domestic development.
Some might worry that as China becomes stronger, it will embark on the traditional path of seeking hegemony, exporting its political system and ideology. The outside world wants to understand what China means when it says it "moves closer to center stage.” Does it mean that the country is prepared to replace the United States and play a "leading role" in the world? When China offers "Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach", is that tantamount to China exporting its development model?
We are keenly aware of the long and arduous path ahead of us in our domestic development, aware also of the huge gap between China and the United States. We are still in the stage of learning and growing. There is a lot we need to improve and in areas like technological innovation and product research and development. We want to play a role in world affairs and make an even greater contribution to mankind. But it must be done within our means and in a manner that is consistent with our values.
China has offered a new option to countries and nations that want rapid development while keeping their independence. But this does not mean that the Chinese model and ideology are to be exported. The success of China proves that there are alternative options to those proposed by the West. China is not interested in the so-called "competition of systems."
In the realm of securitydnf法驱吧, the pursuit of exclusive security by the United States and its alliance will unavoidably clash with the security interests of countries outside their alignment. Additionally, countries not belonging to any alliance are also facing challenges in the handling of security differences between them. It is therefore important that all countries work together to set out some basic common principles.
In 2014, President Xi proposed, "we should actively advocate a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security strategy for Asia. We need to innovate in our security concept, establish a new regional security cooperation architecture and jointly build a shared, win-win road for Asian security."
What China is advocating is in response to the call of the times. If China and the United States, or even better, with Europe and Russia as well as other countries, can begin exploring the basic principles of major dispute resolution, it will not only help in maintaining the overall stability in relations between the major powers, but will also facilitate the resolution of hot-spot regional issues.
The 19th CPC National Congress report has stated that “we will make it our mission to see that by 2035, the modernization of our national defense and our forces is basically completed; and that by the mid-21st century our people’s armed forces have been fully transformed into world-class forces.” Some have rushed to interpret this mission as “setting a timetable for achieving global hegemony,” ignoring the fact that China has always pursued a national defense policy that is defensive in nature.
The White Paper on China’s military strategy published in 2015 explicitly identified the strategic tasks shouldered by China’s military: to deal with a wide range of emergencies and military threats, and effectively safeguard the sovereignty and security of China’s territorial land, air and sea; to resolutely safeguard the unification of the motherland; to safeguard China’s security and interests in new domains; to safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests; to maintain strategic deterrence and carry out nuclear counterattack; to participate in regional and international security cooperation and maintain regional and world peace; to strengthen efforts in operations against infiltration, separatism and terrorism so as to maintain China’s political security and social stability; and to perform such tasks as emergency rescue and disaster relief, rights and interests protection, domestic safety, and support for national economic and social development.
The white paper also pointed out that “the armed forces will actively participate in both regional and international security cooperation and safeguard overseas interests.” However, China’s approach regarding its overseas interests is not exclusionary or confrontational. China has vowed never to pursue hegemony nor seek spheres of influence, military alliances or expansion. China will not fall into the trap of the so-called “strategic competition” with other powers. We will remain committed to international security cooperation based on mutual respect and common interest.
The security situation in China’s Asian neighborhood is quite complicated. The most serious challenge is currently the North Korean nuclear issue. The tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea are also not quieting down.
The Korean nuclear issue is a most unfortunate case. For over 60 years following the ceasefire in the Korean War, there has only been a truce agreement, as no peace deal has been agreed and the US troops have stayed on the Peninsula. Deep distrust makes it impossible for any bilateral or multilateral agreement on the nuclear issue to be fully implemented. The US, emphasizing its own security and its allies’ safety, has exerted mounting military pressure and calls for continued sanctions, while North Korea, hoping to achieve ultimate safety, has speeded up its nuclear and missile tests, resulting in a vicious circle of action and reaction. Is there any hope for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue?
In an encouraging sign, an opportunity for easing tension between South and North Korea has emerged as South Korea has capitalized on the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to open dialogues with the North which responded positively. The fact that the US and South Korea have agreed to delay their regular joint military exercises during the Winter Games in February and March has paved the way for future talks and consultations. This can be seen in part as an early-stage implementation of the “suspension for suspension” idea, which China has been promoting – suspension of nuclear and missile tests and suspension of military maneuvers.
While China believes that sanctions are necessary and has fully complied with the UN Security Council resolutions concerning sanctions on North Korea, we also hold that sanctions only work when the door for negotiation is open. For this reason, China has made painstaking efforts to promote dialogues and negotiations.
China-US coordination is essential. Since President Trump took office, the relationship between China and the US has been smooth, with the two countries demonstrating a willingness to tackle bilateral issues and avoid a collision. But apart from their differences over trade, they are deeply divided over the South China Sea.
Territorial disputes over islands and shoals in the South China Sea are not new. In the process of warming up relations in the 1990s, China and the ASEAN countries reached basic agreement on shelving disputes and pursuing joint development through dialogue and negotiations. But in 2010, the US adopted the strategy of “Pivot to Asia,” making China its target. The fact that the US is taking sides and condoning the provocative rhetoric and moves of others has only intensified China’s concern over the South China Sea issue.
China commenced reclamation projects around the Nansha or Spratley Islands at the end of 2013. The islands, which are under the control of China, are far away from international navigation routes and therefore posed no restriction on the freedom of international navigation. Maintenance and construction work on some of the garrisoned islands and reefs had only the purpose: optimizing functions, improving the living and working conditions of personnel stationed there and better safeguarding China’s territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests，lifting the ability to better provide public goods like search and rescue and marine research.
The US and the Philippines reacted strongly and criticized China. Some other countries in the area also expressed concerns. The Philippines even brought an arbitration case without prior consulting China, as was required according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The case was rejected by China. The US also stepped up its intervention炮火1906, sending ships to sail near the Chinese islands and Shoals. Yet China will not give up its territorial sovereignty and corresponding maritime rights, nor will it condone other parties who intervene in disputes between China and its neighbors. The differences between China and the US regarding these disputes have the potential to become the major point of tension in the South China Sea.
Currently, progress is being made in negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) between China and ASEAN countries. China does not have an agenda or motive to seek hegemony in the region. The future development is in the hands of the parties involved, where the choice of cooperation may lead to a “multi-win” outcome and to choose confrontation or even to conflicts would let everyone lose.
The US tends to view China’s growing role in global affairs from the angle of geopolitical competition, identifying China as a “strategic competitor.” The Trump Administration’s first “National Security Strategy (NSS)” mentioned China 33 times, labeling it as a “revisionist” power to the international order and claiming that “China and Russia challenge American power, influence and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” The “US Defense Strategy” document subsequently released on January 18, 2018, declares that the US will restore America's competitive military advantage to deter Russia and China from “challenging” the United States and its allies. It would be a major concern should this turn out to be a declaration of containing China.
With China’s strength growing in economics, science and technology, it is inevitable for competition between China and the US to increase, as competition is also the nature of the world’s liberal market. But it is also true that our relationship is more cooperative than competitive. It would benefit everyone if China and the US could achieve common progress through healthy, constructive and rule-based competition that drives development.
China and the US are now highly interdependent and our interests are intertwined as a result of over 40 years’ of development following the normalization of bilateral relations. According to China Customs, the trade volume between China and the US in 2017 was over US$580 billion, representing a yearly increase of 15.2 percent and accounting for 14.2 percent of China’s total foreign trade. When President Trump was visiting China in November 2017, Chinese and US companies signed deals on 34 cooperation projects worth US$ 253.5 billion. This is a demonstration of political will and the strong business potential between the two countries.
The Chinese approach to addressing the trade imbalance with the US is to make the “cake” bigger instead of imposing restrictions. The US should relax its export controls and promote exports of high-tech products to China, fulfilling its obligations under Article 15 of the Protocol on China's Accession to the WTO. It should also treat investment by Chinese companies in the US fairly申鹭达卫浴 , and use trade remedy measures with caution. The two countries should not allow a trade war to compromise the corporate interests and the peoples wellbeing.
Many of the new global challenges cannot be effectively tackled by one country alone and it is imperative for the international community to join efforts. China hopes to establish a solid partnership based on mutual respect and shared interest with the US, which adapts to the ever changing reality. Such a partnership will enable both sides to achieve their domestic objectives better while coping with the challenges of today’s world.
(Fu Ying is Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress of China)
本文中文内容来源于“观察者网”，傅莹女士幕安会发言英文全文经作者授权盘古智库发布
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